Jonathan Kirshner’s essay in Foreign Affairs goes beyond just reinterpreting Thucydides. It serves as a political statement from a segment of the American foreign-policy establishment that is growing more concerned about the Trump administration’s frank declaration of the “iron laws” of imperialist violence. Kirshner is not opposed to American power. He is opposed to its stupid exercise. Therefore, his critique doesn’t reject empire entirely but seeks to reform or preserve it. By exploring the historical parallels Kirshner hints at, we can better understand what his argument uncovers—and hides—about the American imperialism crisis in 2026.[1]
Athens and the United States: Imperial Democracies in
Decline
Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War serves as the
fundamental work of realist international relations. It details the rise and
decline of the Athenian empire, a naval power with democratic governance that
also exercised brutal control overseas. Similarly, the United States has
historically portrayed itself as a democratic nation whose global leadership is
both inevitable and benevolent.
Kirshner’s unease with Trump stems from his removal of the
ideological disguise. Stephen Miller’s statement that the world is “governed by
force” and “governed by power” reflects the straightforward Athenian logic of
the Melian Dialogue, expressed plainly without euphemism.
The comparison is clear:
Athens operated as a democracy, managing an empire through tribute, coercion,
and military strength. Likewise, the United States is a democracy that rules a
global empire using financial influence, military bases, sanctions, and
alliances like "coalitions of the willing." Both countries justified
their dominance with universalist rhetoric—Athens with "freedom" and
America with “democracy”—but enforced subjugation through significant force.
Melos and Venezuela: The Strong Do What They Can
The Melian Dialogue is a well-known excerpt from Thucydides.
Athens demands that Melos submit; Melos appeals to justice; Athens responds,
“The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” Afterwards,
the Athenians massacre the men and enslave the women and children.
The similarity to Venezuela is difficult to ignore. In 2026,
the United States kidnapped President Nicolás Maduro, conducted covert
operations, and threatened military intervention. These actions represent a
“qualitative escalation in the criminality of American imperialism.”
The US justification—that Venezuela threatens regional
stability, democracy, or human rights—serves as a typical ideological pretext
that Thucydides would expose as baseless. However, Trump’s foreign-policy team
went further, openly stating that force is the dominant principle in
international affairs. Melos was destroyed not for its danger but for its
defiance. Venezuela is targeted not due to any threat to the US but because it
resists American dominance.
Sicily and Iran: Imperial Overreach and Catastrophe
Some argue that Thucydides’ real lesson isn’t the Melian
Dialogue but the Sicilian Expedition, where Athenian hubris caused catastrophe.
Similarly, Trump’s reckless actions risk a comparable disaster. The analogy
with Iran is strong. Athens believed its power was unlimited during the
Sicilian Expedition, underestimating resistance, overextending, and facing
destruction. Likewise, the US has issued repeated threats of bombing, regime
change, and economic sanctions against Iran. However, Iran, a large and capable
nation with regional allies and asymmetric tactics, presents a different
challenge.
A potential war with Iran
would be similar to the modern Sicilian disaster: it would involve a prolonged,
large-scale conflict with heavy casualties, trigger a global economic shock,
cause alliances to break down, and intensify domestic crises. Kirshner’s
warning is pragmatic, emphasising that excessive imperial ambitions could
threaten the empire's survival.
The Collapse of the “Rules‑Based Order”: From Pericles to
Pompeo
The post-1945 “rules-based international order” functions
similarly to the Periclean ideology, serving as a legitimising story for
imperial domination. However, this order “was never a true limit on American
aggression—rather, it was a tool for navigating inter-imperialist conflicts
amid US dominance.” Just as Athens used democratic rhetoric to conceal its
coercive empire, the US’s claim to uphold international law conceals its global
dominance.
When Athens faced a crisis,
its democratic facade faltered, leading to the execution of generals, the
purging of dissidents, and chaos. Similarly, in 2026, the U.S. is experiencing
a decline: mass deportations, press suppression, civil service purges, overt
authoritarian language, and militarised police. These actions are inciting
increased strikes and protests, showing that imperialism’s crisis translates
into a democratic crisis.
Kirshner’s idea of a ‘real Thucydides trap” suggests that
imperial overreach leads to disaster. However, this isn’t an unchanging
psychological rule but rather a particular manifestation of capitalism’s
inherent contradictions during its imperialist phase.
Lenin showed that imperialism is an unavoidable result of
monopoly capitalism, driven by the pursuit of profit. This drive leads to
expansion, which in turn causes conflict, ultimately resulting in crises. The
‘iron law’ of imperialist barbarism will be confronted with the ‘iron law’ of
the class struggle. The working class is not merely a passive victim of
imperial decline; it is the active force capable of overthrowing the system
responsible for war.
The Lesson for the Working Class
The working class does not prefer either Trump’s blunt
imperialism or Kirshner’s polished version, as both are factions of the same
oligarchy. Both approaches lead to war, austerity, and dictatorship. The
response to Trump’s ‘might makes right’ mentality isn’t a reinstatement of the
polite imperialism associated with the Council on Foreign Relations, but rather
the international mobilisation of the working class and the building of a
global socialist society.
This is Thucydides' key lesson
when viewed from a Marxist perspective: Empires decline not due to imprudence
but because of exploitation. Imperial democracies crumble as their internal
contradictions grow unmanageable. The working class alone has the power to end
imperialist wars. Athens fell, and the American empire is currently facing its
Sicilian moment. The responsibility of the working class is not to preserve it
but to replace it.
Bibliography
Primary Sources
- Thucydides.
History of the Peloponnesian War.
- Lenin,
V.I. Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism.
- Trotsky,
Leon. In Defence of Marxism: The Revolution Betrayed.
Secondary Sources (Classical and IR)
- Kagan,
Donald. The Peloponnesian War.
- Meiggs,
Russell. The Athenian Empire.
- Finley,
M.I. The Ancient Economy.
- Badian,
E. From Plataea to Potidaea: Studies in the History and Historiography
of the Pentecontaetia.
- Gilpin,
Robert. War and Change in World Politics.
- Keohane,
Robert. After Hegemony.
- Mearsheimer,
John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
- Kirshner,
Jonathan. “The Real Thucydides Trap.” Foreign Affairs (2026).
Marxist and WSWS Analyses
- North,
David. The Crisis of American Democracy.
- International
Committee of the Fourth International. The Historical and International
Foundations of the Socialist Equality Party.
- Damon,
Andre. WSWS Perspectives on US foreign policy (2025–2026).
- Walsh,
Bill Van Auken, and other WSWS correspondents on Venezuela, Iran, and the
“rules‑based order.”
[1] The
Strong Do What They Can—and Suffer What They Must: What Thucydides Really
Thought About Power Jonathan Kirshner- www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/strong-do-what-they-can-and-suffer-what-they-must
